Vietnam Firms Plan $11B Capital Raise, Testing Market Absorption

Vietnam’s stock market is poised to face significant dilution risks through the end of 2026 as listed companies accelerate plans to raise capital, with the volume of new shares set to hit a multi-year high.

According to data from FiinTrade compiled as of May 25, planned equity issuances and initial public offerings (IPOs) by listed and registered firms have reached approximately VNĐ289.5 trillion (US$11 billion). This figure represents an 86.5 per cent increase compared to 2025 and is 2.5 times the average level recorded over the past five years. The scale of this fundraising is the largest since the market boom of 2021, signalling that the stock market is reclaiming its role as a crucial medium- and long-term capital channel for businesses after a period where bank credit and corporate bonds were more dominant.

Analysts at FiinTrade noted that approximately 70 per cent of these planned issuances have not yet been executed. This suggests that pressure on the market's capacity to absorb new equity will intensify significantly in the second half of the year.

The IPO market, however, is showing signs of a slowdown. Total IPO activity is forecast to reach VNĐ22.4 trillion this year, a 42 per cent decline from the VNĐ38.6 trillion recorded in 2025. The market has yet to see the large-scale deals that many investors had anticipated. The structure of IPOs is also evolving, shifting away from the state-led equitisation and divestment cycles of the past. New listings are now increasingly driven by private-sector companies, often through spin-offs and corporate ecosystem restructurings. Recent activity has been concentrated in the securities sector, with LPBank Securities (LPBS) and KAFI Securities Corporation (KAFI) preparing to list later in 2026. This follows the IPOs of VPS, VPBankS, and TCBS in 2025. In the consumer sector, Dien May Xanh is one of the few notable companies preparing an IPO this year, while previously expected listings from names like Golden Gate, Highlands Coffee, The CrownX, and Long Chau have not yet materialised.

The banking industry is embarking on what FiinTrade describes as its largest capital increase cycle on record. Lenders have planned equity fundraising estimated at VNĐ128 trillion, a figure more than seven times the issuance scale of 2025 and 71.6 per cent above the five-year average. This drive reflects the banks' need to bolster Tier-1 capital, expand their balance sheets, and position themselves for a new credit growth cycle. Major issuance plans for this year, mostly expected via private placements, include those from Vietcombank, BIDV, VPBank, HDBank, MBBank, and NVB.

Beyond banking, fundraising plans remain concentrated in the financial services and real estate sectors. Securities firms are expected to raise approximately VNĐ48.2 trillion through private placements and rights offerings to existing shareholders. Companies such as Ho Chi Minh City Securities (HCM), VNDirect Securities (VND), Viet First Securities (VFS), and Viet Dragon Securities (VDS) are raising capital to expand margin lending and proprietary trading activities. Meanwhile, planned equity issuance by real estate companies is estimated at nearly VNĐ37.3 trillion. Notable issuers in this space include Novaland, Foreign Trade Development & Investment Corporation of HCMC (FDC), and Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG).

FiinTrade highlighted that dilution risk will be a key factor for investors to monitor closely in 2026. The total number of new shares issued through capital increases and stock splits is projected to reach approximately 48.2 billion. This is a 26 per cent increase from the previous year and is equivalent to about 17.1 per cent of the total outstanding shares at the end of 2025. Of this total, issuances from stock splits, stock dividends, and bonus shares are expected to account for 28.8 billion shares, a figure broadly in line with the 28.2 billion shares issued in 2025. In contrast, shares issued specifically for capital-raising purposes are projected to exceed 19.4 billion, a sharp year-on-year increase of 91.6 per cent.

This substantial supply of new shares is entering a market characterised by a weak recovery in liquidity, sustained net selling by foreign investors, and increasingly divergent earnings growth across sectors. Consequently, the influx of equity could heighten dilution risks and exert downward pressure on market valuations.